Washington links Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to the withdrawal of Hezbollah's weapons.

There is widespread concern in Lebanon that the United States will refrain from intervening directly or through the international monitoring committee overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Israel. This could prevent Israel from expanding its airstrikes, as occurred recently in Beirut's southern suburbs. This is particularly true given that these raids were the most violent, resulting in the destruction of several residential buildings, despite Israel's claim that it targeted the basements, which Hezbollah uses to manufacture drones.

Lebanese concerns were heightened by the fact that Israel had previously informed the United States of its intention to target these buildings, which it later emerged were not used by Hezbollah to manufacture drones.

This is what Washington acknowledged by directing blame at Tel Aviv, as official Lebanese sources told Asharq Al-Awsat, on the grounds that its pretexts were not valid.

Blame without pressure

However, the US rebuke of Israel will not be used to pressure it to halt its attacks, given fears of their expansion in the absence of deterrent controls. This is compounded by the failure of the oversight committee to monitor violations and deter Israel from continuing them. Hezbollah stands behind the Lebanese state in its diplomatic efforts to compel Israel to withdraw, and refrains from responding to its violations of the ceasefire.

Therefore, Washington's blaming of Israel will not change the reality on the ground, as long as it enjoys American cover that allows it to continue its pressure on Lebanon to compel it to set a timetable for the withdrawal of Hezbollah's weapons and link it to its withdrawal from the south. This is despite the fact that President Joseph Aoun is committed to his pledge to keep weapons exclusively in the hands of the state and will not back down from it.

This automatically applies to the government of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. Both insist on maintaining exclusive control in the hands of the state, with no partner, and call on the international community, led by the United States, to pressure Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

In this context, ministerial sources say that President Aoun is steadfast in his position and is communicating with Hezbollah's leadership in preparation for a dialogue aimed at ensuring the exclusive possession of arms by the state once the appropriate conditions for its implementation are ripe.

Party choice

Sources confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that the party has no choice but to engage in serious dialogue, which is not intended to buy time while awaiting the outcome of the US-Iranian negotiations on the nuclear issue. However, it is impossible to link the dialogue to Lebanese efforts to monopolize arms control in the hands of the state in order to extend its sovereignty over all its territory.

She points out that the government's accusation of being slow to withdraw Hezbollah's weapons is inaccurate and rather unfair and prejudiced, given Israel's refusal to implement the ceasefire agreement. Unless the two sides are required to engage in a bloody confrontation with a large segment of the Lebanese population, this will not achieve its intended goals, as it will plunge the country into a political crisis that threatens civil peace and destabilizes the country.

Stick to the oversight committee

Sources confirm that Lebanon is committed to the continued presence of the oversight committee overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire. It views the Army Command’s statement, which threatened to refrain from accompanying the committee in inspecting sites for dismantling if it is confirmed that they are being used by Hezbollah to store weapons as part of its military infrastructure, as part of an effort to urge Israel to intervene with Israel to halt its violations and prevent them from expanding. This comes amid legitimate fears that they are poisoning the atmosphere with the arrival of summer, which the Lebanese are looking forward to, revitalizing the economy and lifting Lebanon out of the stagnation it is mired in.

Sources point out that the promised dialogue with Hezbollah to achieve arms monopoly is part of Lebanon's national security strategy. It will not remain open-ended and is not intended to waste time, as Lebanon, in its current situation, cannot afford to miss the opportunity to extricate itself from its crises by electing Aoun as president and forming a government headed by Salam. The sources reveal that Aoun will not allow this opportunity to be wasted.

This is what he emphasized when he received foreign and Arab envoys who advised him to expedite the creation of conditions that would allow the state to monopolize arms without any partner. This is the reason behind interpreting this advice as part of setting a timetable for the party's disarmament.

Sources are asking about the absence of American action in Lebanon, specifically regarding everything related to the military scene resulting from the Israeli escalation, especially since Lebanon is going through the darkest circumstances with Washington relieving the US President’s Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, of her assignment to the Lebanese file. This has thrown the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, and with her the Lebanese state with all its institutions, into a state of confusion, waiting for Washington to send to Beirut, as rumored, the US Ambassador to Turkey, Thomas Barrack, who was recently appointed by US President Donald Trump as his special envoy to Syria, although no one has been informed of his arrival date.

double message

She also asks whether Israel, by expanding its raids, aims to send a double message with an American stamp:

The first is for Iran, under the pretext that its Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi's visit to Beirut will not allow it to regain its role in Lebanon. The second is for Hezbollah, lest it reconsider its calculations and act as if circumstances still allow it to restore its military capabilities to what they were before its support for Gaza, and that it is not permissible to go back. Note that Araqchi limited his interest to turning a new page between the two countries, and did not address the hot topics on the Lebanese agenda at the current stage. This means that he is convinced that the past has been turned over due to the transformations witnessed in the region and Lebanon.

Sources believe that the party has no justification for placing the country on a waiting list, pending the outcome of the Iranian-American negotiations, because what has been written for Lebanon has been written.

The principle of concomitance

In contrast, political sources are dealing with the lack of American action at this time, and Israel's authorization to do whatever it deems appropriate, from the perspective of preserving its security by destroying the party's remaining military capabilities. They are linking their withdrawal from the south to establishing a timetable for containing its weapons and keeping them exclusively in the hands of the state, without which it cannot extend its sovereignty over all its territories in accordance with Resolution 1701.

She asserts that senior state officials have informed her, as have several members of parliament who frequently visit Washington, that the White House is adopting the principle of coherence because it is made in the United States, and that Lebanon has no choice but to adhere to it as a mandatory path to drawing the political curtain on the Iranian era in the region with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime and Lebanon entering a new political phase, one of the results of which has been the decline of the party after it miscalculated Israel's reaction to its support for Gaza.