The Hostage Deal and the Fate of Hamas

Israel's Channel 12 revealed on Friday that the new head of the Shin Bet, David Zinni, appointed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has a "firm position" against the hostage deal being negotiated with Hamas. It is clear that the hostage deal has become clear and its weakness and fragility have become apparent, especially after David Zinni was appointed as the new head of the Shin Bet, succeeding Ronen Bar. The channel also quoted officials as saying that Zinni repeated in the General Staff discussions the phrase: "I am against hostage deals. This is an eternal war." This is in addition to the ongoing bombing of the Gaza Strip by the occupation air force.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz warned Hamas leaders against responding positively to the US proposal to release all Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip. He stressed, "If they (Hamas leaders) do not respond positively to the US proposal to release the hostages, the Israeli army will continue to strike them hard until all the hostages are released and they surrender completely."

Katz announced an expansion of the military operation in Gaza, indicating plans to seize control of vast areas of the Strip and incorporate them into what he described as a "defensive security zone" in the southern Gaza Strip.

What the Netanyahu government seeks is clear: First, the return of all Israeli hostages, both living and dead, to calm the angry Israeli public. After that, Israel will work to impose a new political reality that includes the complete disappearance of Hamas from the political scene. It is clear that the primary goal currently is to recover all Israeli hostages, whether alive or dead, and beyond that, by military force alone, without resorting to negotiations regarding prisoners or sacrificing them to achieve the greater war objectives, from Israel's perspective. Talk of future negotiations is merely an illusion. After the Israeli hostages are handed over or found, there will be no room for any voice or influence from Hamas leaders.

Most of the Palestinian prisoners who will be released, should a prisoner exchange agreement be reached between Hamas and Israel, although this is unlikely, will reflect the reality facing Israel: Israeli prisons are no longer able to accommodate any more prisoners, making them a burden on the prison administration.

Anyone who thought that even a deal would end the war in Gaza was mistaken. Unfortunately, the war will not end and the Israeli army will not withdraw. On the contrary, military strikes will become more intense and focused, especially with the exposure of the limited number of living Israeli hostages held by Hamas and Palestinian factions. Even the bodies of deceased hostages may have been mixed with the bodies of Palestinians and buried under the rubble of destroyed buildings, making it difficult to retrieve them and hand them over to Israel.

It's clear that the negotiations so far are proceeding exactly as Israel wants, with no obstacle to their implementation other than logistical and security-related procrastination. The goal here is to arrange the distribution of Gaza's population into separate, enclosed blocks, with no geographical extension between them. This distribution ensures the lack of movement, ease of aid access, control of the Strip, and ease of displacement.

Even if a deal is reached, which I believe is unlikely, Israel will not release political prisoners with long sentences. Rather, it will release civilian prisoners from the Gaza Strip, children and women from Jerusalem and the West Bank, the 1948 Arabs, and workers who do not have security files. Israel will also release administrative prisoners, prisoners of war accused of incitement, and sick people with long sentences who are not useful in prison and may need special care. Israeli prisons are overcrowded, but that does not mean that it will not re-arrest some of them, if necessary, and it may release some in exchange for house arrest for a period of time under supervision.

As for the residents of northern Gaza, it will be difficult for them to return to their areas. Those who do will find themselves forced to flee again or face death, especially since northern Gaza has been completely destroyed. According to Israel's vision, this area may become a buffer zone. Israel will not occupy Gaza, but will instead be content with achieving economic interests there, and will manage the situation there for a temporary period in coordination with the Americans, Europeans, and some Arab countries. Within this framework, the Palestinians will have a partial role limited to managing logistical services through institutions based in Ramallah. As for Gaza's future, a detailed post-war scenario has been prepared, which includes a strong international and American presence to ensure arrangements for the next phase.

What is happening in Gaza now is not just a comprehensive war against Hamas, but rather a process aimed at redrawing the demographic map of the Strip. The strikes aim to force residents to gather in specific areas and isolate them from the rest of Gaza, paving the way for the gradual depopulation of the Strip. The Strip has become uninhabitable, and Gaza's residents will not be allowed to return to the status quo they were in before October 7, 2023.

All of this will take place far from the media and in complete silence. All media outlets and social media platforms will be banned from discussing Gaza, and the displacement phase will begin in silence in what has been dubbed the "silent war," the most dangerous phase. News about it will gradually disappear. No one will hear the voices of the people of Gaza except through occasional light news. The media echo will cease, and the people of Gaza will suffer their harsh reality in silence and leave Gaza without fanfare.

But Netanyahu, by appointing Zinni, did not want negotiations. He wanted negotiations to end the popular pressure on him, on the one hand, by releasing the living Israeli prisoners, and, secondly, to complete his mission in Gaza with specific objectives so that he could devote himself to the West Bank and arrange for the return of Judea and Samaria to the Israeli fold and the expulsion of President Mahmoud Abbas and those around him from Palestine.

What is happening in Gaza now is not just a comprehensive war against Hamas, but rather a process aimed at redrawing the demographic map of the Strip. The strikes aim to force residents to congregate in specific areas, isolating them from the rest of Gaza, paving the way for the gradual depopulation of the Strip. The Strip has become uninhabitable, and Gaza's residents will not be allowed to return to the status quo they were in before October 7.

The broader goal is to destroy what remains of Gaza's infrastructure, particularly in the north and central regions, while transferring the Strip's population to specific areas in the south, and then gradually forcing them to emigrate by various means, as part of a systematic plan that leads to "no return." As for talk of support for the Palestinians by the "Aryan race" or the recognition of a Palestinian state by some Western countries, it is often nothing more than a soft cover for another aspect of immoral colonialism.

As for Hamas's fate, it is clear that Hamas committed a strategic error a year ago when it refused to conclude a deal with Israel, despite having greater negotiating power and a larger number of living hostages. Hamas's procrastination and ill-considered evasion led it to a situation that was almost doomed.

Hamas is currently facing political and military collapse. It has lost its bargaining chips, and possesses little information about the hostages, and even that information may be partial. What it is negotiating for now is limited information about those still alive, and perhaps the burial sites of the bodies, which may already have decomposed.

In the global political landscape, there is no longer a place for movements like Hamas, Hezbollah, or the Houthis. Israel, on the other hand, possesses many sources of power and is not obliged to make any concessions, while Hamas is forced to accept any conditions imposed on it before it receives the final blow that would eliminate its remaining leaders, all of whom are vulnerable to assassination.

Israel may currently need some of these leaders to address issues related to the whereabouts of living hostages and the bodies of those killed, but once that is achieved, it will not hesitate to implement scenarios to eliminate them. Israel's strategic goal is to wipe out Hamas, not only within the borders of Palestine but also abroad, while preventing any chance of its reconstitution. Therefore, eliminating the leaders is inevitable, even if it is not tied to a specific timetable.

Countries hosting Hamas leaders, such as Qatar and Turkey, will likely pressure them to sign any agreement that would end their political presence before Donald Trump makes more escalatory decisions against them, possibly even leading to the assassination of leaders in those territories. In the same vein, Iran may soon be a target of these plans.

Hamas today suffers from local, regional, and international rejection, and its return as a political force has become almost impossible, no matter how hard it tries to spread absurd victory slogans through the media. The Palestinian people understand the truth and are well aware of their reality. Hamas and Hezbollah rely primarily on Iranian support, but Iran is currently in a difficult situation and will be unable to restore the influence of political Islam in the Middle East. Iran itself is also facing internal and external crises, and with the end of Khamenei's rule approaching, it will suffer a severe blockade and possibly military strikes.

The October 7 scenarios are still ongoing, and Hamas leaders will certainly eventually leave the Middle East as part of the deal after the hostages are handed over. This will serve as Hamas's last bargaining chip, after which it will have no negotiating role. Russia may be the last resort for many of its leaders, and it seems that the fate of all Hamas leaders residing in Qatar, Turkey, or any other country will be similar to that of Haniyeh, Sinwar, Nasrallah, and other Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Mossad may be avoiding targeting them in Qatar to preserve Qatari-Israeli relations, but the idea of Israel leaving them alone is not likely, not because of their danger, but because of Israel's desire to eliminate them, even if they seek refuge with major powers like Russia.