The ominous promise

The clock has struck, and the time has come for the negotiations of the second stage of the exchange deal between Israel and Hamas to begin in earnest, even though the real negotiations were supposed to begin on the sixteenth day of the first stage. However, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich received an ominous promise from Netanyahu stating that the decision to begin negotiations for the second stage will be subject to discussion by the political and security cabinet that met yesterday. Therefore, the decision is likely to be in the context of courting the Americans only, with greater procrastination, as a number of officials in the circle of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu indicate that there is almost no one in Israel who believes that it is possible to reach the second stage of the deal, because the gaps are very large, and Israel will not be able to give up any of its demands.

Israel is thus striving with all its might to extend the first phase and include more hostages on the humanitarian list. It seems that some of the items on this list have been agreed upon, as a number of Israeli bodies are scheduled to be released the day after tomorrow, Thursday. Expectations also indicate the possibility of releasing six living detainees in a batch next Saturday. The question that now arises is: Will this change be acceptable to Hamas, and what valuable compensation will it receive, especially since Netanyahu is still hesitant about the issue of bringing in mobile homes and equipment for the relief protocol.

It is worth noting that Israeli estimates that the chances of advancing towards the second phase of the agreement are not great, due to Hamas’s refusal to give up the Gaza Strip on the one hand, and in light of the threat to the stability of the Israeli government on the other hand, according to what was reported by the Haaretz website, the priority of the political level in Israel to push towards extending the first phase is considered a pressure card, but Hamas may reject it unless Israel commits to implementing the relief protocol.

Netanyahu continues to play on all strings, and he is eager to receive the decision of his Defense Minister, Yisrael Katz, to establish a special department in the Defense Ministry to evacuate the residents of Gaza “voluntarily.” Netanyahu seeks to strengthen this approach by presenting an initial plan on the subject from the Israeli army, which contains many temptations, including extensive aid, allowing any resident of Gaza who wishes to immigrate voluntarily to a third country to obtain a package that includes special exit arrangements by sea, air, and land.

If the Gazans insist on their steadfastness and remaining on their land, Netanyahu threatens to use Trump’s threat card, and thus resume the aggression based on the data of the current discussions, in addition to his ominous promise to Smotrich, otherwise his government may collapse at any moment.