What does Netanyahu really want?

The October 7, 2023 attack marked a dramatic shift in the Israeli political and security landscape, exposing serious gaps in the security strategy for which Benjamin Netanyahu bears full responsibility, whether he likes it or not! Amid mounting criticism and popular skepticism of his leadership, he is trying to exploit the crisis as an opportunity to redirect Israeli society’s attention and tickle their feelings in a morbid and chauvinistic way towards expansionist ambitions, claiming that Israel, in order to remain strong and secure, must “expand,” as former US President Donald Trump indicated in a previous meeting after Netanyahu “whispered” in his ear, I think - and not all suspicion is sinful! But where does Netanyahu want to take Israel? And what is the real vision he seeks to achieve?

This vision includes (1) expansionist ambitions, (2) an attempt to drag the United States into a larger regional conflict, and (3) to create new facts that could change the geopolitical map of the Middle East, but at the expense of the region’s security and stability. Netanyahu believes that regional conditions and the decline in the influence of international opposition help him achieve his goals, driven by the support of a significant component of Israeli society that sees him as the “King of Israel” and the “magician” capable of realizing the biblical dream.

His expansionist project includes complete control over the Gaza Strip, displacing Palestinians from their lands to evacuate a third of the Strip, and perhaps turning it into a settlement area. Netanyahu believes that establishing a buffer zone 10 kilometers deep inside Lebanese territory, free of villages and residents, will help secure the northern border and reduce the chances of any future threat from Hezbollah.

Following the failure of October 7, Netanyahu began to direct attention towards what he called the "historic mission" that he seeks to achieve, trying to use expansion as a means, as an Israeli, to atone for his mistakes, and even his political sins, and there are many of them! Just as he tries to portray expansionist ambitions as an inevitable necessity to protect Israel's "existentialism", in an escape forward; his goal is to divert attention from holding him accountable and prosecuting him, after the losses that Israel incurred during this attack led to the expansion of the circle of criticism against him, especially since he has always promoted himself as an invincible leader and that his survival is the survival of Israel. In all of this, Netanyahu enjoys strong support from right-wing settler groups. In this context, settlement in a third of the Gaza Strip is considered part of this vision, as these groups see the Strip as a "natural extension" of Israel. Also, at the basis of the expansion plan is exploiting the current situation to control and annex as much land as possible from the West Bank, and imposing a fait accompli policy that may make a return to the 1967 borders impossible.

The threat from Iran is central to Netanyahu’s strategy, and he sees the United States as a reliable ally to achieve this goal. Netanyahu tries to portray Iran as a global threat that requires American intervention, but in reality he seeks to use American power to achieve his own goals in the region. This move is driven by strategic considerations; he believes that neutralizing Iranian influence will strengthen Israel’s hegemony in the Middle East and give it greater freedom to expand its borders to impose its influence in the region for generations. Again, he sees this vision as an opportunity for personal gain and to secure a political legacy that will return him to the front pages as a historic leader.

Despite Israel receiving significant support from the United States, the European and international position remains reserved towards Israeli expansionist policies. Europe, which views the stability of the region as vital to its national security, sees Netanyahu’s expansionist policies as a danger that could lead to an escalation of violence and create a new crisis in the region. Although many Western countries support “Israel’s right to defend itself,” they are wary of expansionist plans that could lead to the displacement of Palestinians or change the geopolitical map of the region.

It also realizes that expanding Israel’s borders according to Netanyahu’s vision could exacerbate crises and cause more unrest in the Middle East, which means that the end result may not necessarily be in Israel’s favor or in Europe’s and the world’s, not least because of the repercussions on the Middle Eastern oil issue. Indeed, the future of these ambitions still depends on international and regional reactions, especially since “everything ends in its own right,” and the lesson lies in what this policy will lead to in the long term.