"Unity Government"... Will Netanyahu do it?

Voices have begun to rise within the Israeli political system to form a broad national unity government, the latest of which was what Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in talks with a number of families of Israeli female soldiers held captive in the Gaza Strip: “We are at a critical moment. In order to return the kidnapped, we must unite with all our strength and work with great and joint efforts,” in a clear indication of his support for the formation of a broad unity government whose central title is the completion of a prisoner exchange deal to return the Israeli prisoners held by the resistance in Gaza.

Herzog was not the first to propose the idea of forming a broad unity government in Israel. Rather, the head of the Haredi Shas movement, Aryeh Deri, also pushed for the formation of a unity government. Although he is part of the government coalition, he quoted a senior official in the Shas party as saying, “There is a will and support for forming a unity government, and this is what must be done now,” especially since Shas’s official position is in favor of completing a prisoner exchange deal, as the movement’s Rabbinical Council ruled. Shas’s political party goals cannot be ruled out behind the call to form a broad unity government. After Deri failed to pass the rabbinate law due to the veto placed by Ben Gvir, head of the Greatness of Israel party, and his threat not to vote in favor of the law, he made Shas’ call to form a unity government to complete a prisoner exchange deal a smart way to remove Ben Gvir from the government, since he categorically opposes implementing the exchange deal. This was quickly reflected in his party’s position on Herzog’s call, which he considered “an irresponsible call that cooperates with the propaganda of Hamas and the extreme left.”

Aryeh Deri has strong ties to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but some consider Shas to be the weakest link in Netanyahu's coalition government, as it is deeply disappointed by Netanyahu's inability to implement the coalition agreements under which it participated in the government coalition, and if we add to that the anger and disappointment of the Haredim from the United Torah Judaism party led by Yitzhak Goldknopf, who the Israeli media revealed threatened not to pass the 2025 budget unless a conscription law exempting the Haredim from military service is passed within 3 weeks, in other words, toppling the government in exchange for the conscription law, which is considered a major mine in the face of Netanyahu's government, which is unable to dismantle it without losses so far, especially in light of the presence of many supporters within the Likud and Religious Zionism parties for the conscription of the Haredim in light of the raging war on more than one front.

In light of the above, has Netanyahu come to realize that his government’s lifespan may not be long in light of the successive threats from his partners? Not to mention the possibility of the war rolling into the northern front with Hezbollah, whose management requires a professionally and politically qualified leadership that enjoys popular support, not a government against which hundreds of thousands of protesters come out weekly.

In addition, the broad unity government allows Netanyahu to remain in the prime minister's chair, at least until the end of 2025, and he will go into the upcoming elections in a more comfortable position at the popular level, and before the next US president, whoever he may be. At the same time, the current political situation in Israel has dissolved many of the differences between the secular opposition parties and the Haredim, especially the Shas movement, and there is now acceptance of their participation in the government coalition. In this way, Netanyahu preserves the Haredim, his historical partners in government coalitions. It is clear that Netanyahu's strategy is still to keep all his cards close to his chest without disclosing his next move, but he is preparing the conditions for implementing all possibilities.

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A broad unity government would allow Netanyahu to remain prime minister at least until the end of 2025, and he would go into the next election in a more comfortable position at the popular level, and before the next US president.

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