The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh... an important but inconclusive development

There is no doubt that the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh is a significant event. Haniyeh has led Hamas since 2017, when he was first elected as its chairman, and then again in 2021, when he was elected for a second time.

It is still too early to determine the extent to which his assassination will affect the war and Hamas as a movement, but its timing in the midst of the war, and after the assassination of senior Hezbollah official Fouad Shukr in Lebanon as well as Haniyeh’s deputy Sheikh Saleh al-Arouri, several months ago, may have a cumulative effect.

It should be remembered that Haniyeh was never the movement’s number one man. In Hamas’s history, there has never been a single person who has enjoyed a prestigious and accepted status as superior to everyone else, with the exception of Ahmed Yassin. This also explains the nature of the movement and perhaps the secret of its survival: its very broad popular base and its adoption of fundamental decisions by consensus and shared responsibility. Hamas will quickly find a replacement for Haniyeh and continue its path while adapting to the needs of the moment.

It is worth noting that after the assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, a shift occurred that led to Hamas’s participation in the 2006 elections, in contrast to its opposition to participating in the 1996 elections. The question is whether an event of this kind could lead, after ten months of bloody war, to a new way of thinking in Hamas. It is still too early to say, and any assessment in this regard before the release of the hostages and the end of the war would be premature. But as mentioned, the cumulative effect that could influence Israel in a positive direction is also important.

As for Iran, the assassination of Haniyeh reveals its weaknesses as a patron state, unable to protect its allies whom it hosts, and its intelligence weaknesses.