OPINIONS

Sat 22 Jun 2024 9:35 am - Jerusalem Time

About the escalation in the war in northern Palestine

Perhaps the most important thing that military and political leaders in Israel should read, as they witness what was announced by the publication of the photos taken by the high-tech Hoopoe drone, is that they are facing a technical development that they had not expected before, in addition to the fact that its mere disclosure by Hezbollah in Lebanon means that What is hidden is greater, which represents a deterrent warning that should not be ignored.


What is meant by the “visit” of the hoopoe march to the skies of Haifa and its environs, and its “safe” wandering without being detected by radar sensors, or anything that reveals the entry of a foreign object over the most important city, necessitates further recalculation in waging a war; The Israeli army announced that it was preparing for it.


Israeli threats to wage war have increased in response to the escalation that occurred during the past two weeks, specifically after the assassination of the military commander in the resistance forces, the martyr Talib Sami Abdullah “Hajj Abu Talib.”


The military situation in the war between Hezbollah and Tel Aviv is on the verge of launching a comprehensive war by the enemy, and it is suffering defeats within the rules of engagement in which mutual escalation has been maintained for eight months, entering the ninth month a few days ago.


This was done by launching 200 missiles and drones over three consecutive days, at the northern Palestinian territories occupied since 1949, which would have required the immediate launch of war, if the army and the occupying state were as they were in the old days. They did it, for much less than that, when the 2006 war was launched due to or under the pretext of capturing two soldiers and blowing up a Merkava tank.


The military situation in the controlled war between Hezbollah and the occupying state is on the verge of launching a comprehensive war by the enemy, and it is suffering defeats within the rules of engagement in which mutual escalation has been maintained for eight months, entering the ninth month a few days ago.


The arrival of the war to this level, which was characterized by the occupation raining down hundreds of missiles and drones in a single day, makes it likely that a comprehensive or high-level war will be launched from one moment to the next, knowing that the launch of an aggressive war by Israel has been on the table awaiting implementation for five or seven years. At least. There is no explanation for the hesitation in implementing it except for one of two obstacles: the first is the lack of certainty of victory in it, but rather the preponderance of the fear of its failure on the one hand, or the inability to bear the losses in Haifa and Tel Aviv, for example, in the event of an outbreak of mutual bombing in the depths, which is considered a war. Almost comprehensive.


There is no explanation for the hesitation in implementing it except for one of two obstacles: the first is the lack of certainty of victory in it, but rather the preponderance of the fear of its failure on the one hand, or the inability to bear the losses in Haifa and Tel Aviv, for example, in the event of an outbreak of mutual bombing in the depths, which is considered a war. Almost comprehensive


The question is: Is the hesitation to wage war, in response to the deterrence achieved by the resistance in Lebanon, due to the two reasons above, and perhaps also with American intervention to avoid such a war, with the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip?


If the answer is to prefer to keep the response within the ceiling to which the current situation has escalated, then this necessitates keeping the finger on the trigger in anticipation of the outbreak of war, due to foolishness in assessing the situation, a foolishness that has become part of the characteristics of Netanyahu’s decisions over the past eight months, even if the calculations are different with the party. God.

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About the escalation in the war in northern Palestine

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