OPINIONS

Mon 20 May 2024 8:48 am - Jerusalem Time

Israel's difficult choices after Rafah

Continuing a war with no end and no horizon has turned, due to losses, the erosion of support, and public disagreements between the parties of Netanyahu’s government, into an option that is supported only by Netanyahu himself, and two ministers who believe that their political and ideological future depends on the continuation of this war and its expansion as well. The war that Netanyahu is leading in a spirit of revenge will save him time. Enough - perhaps - to achieve some achievement, such as arresting or killing first-ranking leaders in the Hamas movement or liberating Israeli detainees, or - perhaps also - the resistance surrendering due to pressure, siege, and lack of supplies and ammunition, and by the way, Netanyahu has everything he wants to prolong this war. There is Western colonial coverage, there are ammunition, and there are huge lobbies ready to justify, whitewash, and save Israel from punishment or criticism, as these lobbies have enough tools for moral, political, and physical assassination to muzzle mouths and abort positions.


But continuing the war waiting for some surprise or miracle to occur is an absurd and crazy option as well. Continuing the war brings with it failure, exposure, accountability, and the split or disintegration of the government, or continuing the war may lead to a comprehensive strike in Israeli public life that leads to calling for early elections.


Continuing the war is not an easy or guaranteed option. This is no guarantee that the war will end the Hamas movement, and there is no guarantee that continuing the war will double its achievements. On the contrary, the longer this war lasts, the more complicated the scene becomes, with the American administration despite its weakness, confusion, and contradiction. And with Egypt, despite Egypt's public desire not to escalate and try to contain the situation, and with the European Union, some of whose members are rushing to recognize the Palestinian state, and with the Israeli public, whose new sectors have begun to become convinced that Netanyahu is taking them hostage to his vision, policy, and ambitions, and most importantly, this government itself is witnessing violent confrontations. And publicly between Gallant, who believes that what has been accomplished in Gaza is enough to stop this war, and Netanyahu and his partners, who believe that the war is not over yet, and that it may achieve more than what has been achieved.


In my opinion, Netanyahu - who is rushing into this war for multiple goals, including truly personal and religious - cannot stop this war except with his resounding fall. Stopping this war and entering into a settlement with the resistance or with others is a collapse of everything that Netanyahu claimed and promoted, especially since this man wants to make this war a reformulation of the settlement with the Palestinian people. He wants to eliminate the Hamas movement security-wise and politically, and he wants to end the movement. Fatah, or completely dismantling it, by besieging or neglecting the Palestinian Authority. Not only that, but this extremist wants to separate the Gaza Strip from the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem politically, administratively, and demographically. Through this war, Netanyahu wants to drop the two-state solution in order to propose a solution of multiple Palestinian states and dispersed Palestinian groups. This solution that Netanyahu dreams of will not be achieved because of Palestinian rejection first, and because of Arab conditions that will not agree to finance or cover this solution, which only leads to more Of chaos and turmoil, and such a solution will not be achieved due to Western American and European visions, because such a solution will make these countries pay the price for the continuation of the conflict, and perhaps in a more severe way.
How can Netanyahu get out of this impasse?! Either continuing the war and the dilemma of not wanting to come down from the tree, especially since the resistance announced that it will continue the confrontation, whatever the cost.


Or is it possible that the United States, in cooperation with its friends in the region, will open a safe exit corridor for Netanyahu, avoiding embarrassment or falling?! Is it possible that Israel suddenly decides - due to losses, mounting differences in viewpoints, and public pressure - to redeploy in the Gaza Strip without agreeing with any party?!


This is what Israel has done more than once, and it is possible to do, and it has justified this by saying that it accomplished the mission by ninety percent, and that it can coexist with the threat of the remaining ten percent.


The very difficult option that we have not mentioned until this moment is the option of a political settlement based on the establishment of a free and dignified Palestinian state within regional and international arrangements. This is one of the most difficult options for Israel, which no longer sees recognition of the Palestinian people and their rights as an option at all.

Through this war, Netanyahu wants to drop the two-state solution and propose a solution of multiple Palestinian states and dispersed Palestinian groups. This solution that Netanyahu dreams of will not be achieved because of Palestinian rejection first, and because of the Arab conditions that will not agree to finance or cover this solution, which only leads to more Of chaos and disorder.

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Israel's difficult choices after Rafah

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