ARAB AND WORLD

Fri 05 Apr 2024 10:33 pm - Jerusalem Time

Storming Rafah.. Disagreement of partners and the election calculation between Biden and Netanyahu

The administration of US President Joe Biden is intensifying its pressure on Israel to refrain from entering the city of Rafah in the far south of the Gaza Strip, where the occupation army says that 4 battalions affiliated with the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) are still largely intact.


The occupation claims that the movement's senior leaders are "hiding" among more than 1.4 million civilians who were displaced from the northern and central Gaza Strip to Rafah in recent months.


Voices have risen on the American side in recent weeks, demanding that the occupation facilitate the entry of aid and change plans to storm Rafah, amid accusations from United Nations relief agencies and other international relief organizations that Israel is preventing the entry of aid into the Strip and that it is on the verge of a severe humanitarian disaster.


Anger and criticism

Biden expressed his deep anger at Israel's attack on the cars of humanitarian relief workers affiliated with the World Central Kitchen organization, which resulted in the death of 7 of them. He criticized - in a White House statement - Israel for that, and called for "accountability" of those responsible for the attacks.


Biden also called for allowing more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, and did not indicate any intention to change his country's policies towards unconditional support for Israel.


American and Israeli officials met remotely last Monday to discuss Tel Aviv’s plans to storm Rafah. The meeting witnessed tension after the American side questioned an Israeli plan to evacuate more than 1.4 million Palestinian civilians from the city.


The officials said that Israel presented a plan to transfer 1.4 million civilians over several weeks from Rafah to tents that will be erected north of the city, but the American side stressed that the plans do not include meeting sanitation needs or an assessment of the amount of food or water required or where it will come from, and that any plans must That takes months.


On the other hand, during a meeting last Tuesday between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon, Austin stated that the tragedy of the World Kitchen victims reinforced American concern about a possible military operation in Rafah, focusing on the need to ensure the evacuation of Palestinian civilians and the flow of humanitarian aid. .


Biden's position on continued support for Israel did not surprise most of the observers in the American capital who Al Jazeera Net spoke to, and none of them expected any change in unconditional American support if the Israeli government implemented its pledge to storm Rafah by land after Eid al-Fitr, despite the American reservation.


Disagreements and tension

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, defense affairs expert Michael Beck pointed out that "some disagreements were inevitable, especially with Israel focusing on the goal of destroying Hamas, while the Biden administration is trying to achieve a balance between its global priorities while continuing to support Tel Aviv."


The same expert explains that "what may happen is a compromise, where Israel carries out a more limited operation in Rafah aimed at ensuring its security while satisfying American concerns."


For his part, David De Roche, professor of security studies at the Pentagon’s National Defense University and former NATO official, says, “It is not at all uncommon to see this kind of tension between partners - not allies - during conflicts, especially when there is Civilian casualties and an increase in international condemnation of the conduct of the war by the partner state.”


He added, "Also, American support for Israel is not complete. For example, the Israelis requested Apache attack helicopters and their request was rejected."


Des Roches explained to Al Jazeera Net that a large part of what is happening takes into account the electoral process in both the United States and Israel. “Biden saw the war dividing his popular base and that he still has weak numbers in the opinion polls against his rival, former President Donald Trump.”


The professor of security studies continues, "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also knows that if he does not win the war against Hamas, he will not have a political future in Israel and may be imprisoned. It is inevitable that there will be tensions between partners, especially when there are divergent strategic goals."


Internal pressure

For Biden, voter dissatisfaction with his handling of the Gaza war is a growing source of concern, and anti-war sentiment has emerged in the Democratic Party primary contests, including this week in the state of Wisconsin, where nearly 48,000 people - or 8.3% - did not vote for Biden, and chose to vote. With “non-compliance.”


These results came after a strong effort by anti-war activists urging the state's voters to register their dissatisfaction with Biden by making this choice, and four years ago only 3,500 voters - or 0.4% - chose to vote "no commitment" in the primary elections in Wisconsin.


It is noteworthy that Biden won the state of Wisconsin by only 20,000 votes in the 2020 elections, which means that the current dissatisfaction with him could have serious consequences in next November’s elections.


Wisconsin is one of the few states that are expected to determine the outcome of the presidential election, and the results in it are similar to the Democratic Party primary competitions this year in other swing states, led by Michigan, where more than 100,000 Democratic voters - or 13.2% - did not vote in favor. Biden, and voted “no commitment.”


In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Ambassador David Mack, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Middle Eastern Affairs, pointed out the refusal of Netanyahu and his partners in the right-wing coalition to follow a path towards a peaceful solution in Gaza despite the urging of the “more moderate” Israeli leaders and many Israeli military commanders.

He added that Biden said the right things, but did not take actions such as halting arms shipments because of his strong and emotional attachment throughout his life to full American support for Israel.


Mack continued, "But internal political pressure is increasing on Biden to use more sticks and carrots in an attempt to change Israel's policy."


In turn, former diplomat Aaron David Miller tweeted on the X platform, saying, “If Biden is going to exert any pressure on the Netanyahu government, it will not be because of Rafah or global cuisine, and the pressure will focus on Netanyahu towards concluding an agreement with Hamas to remove detainees and increase humanitarian aid within a temporary ceasefire.” ".


Source: Al Jazeera

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Storming Rafah.. Disagreement of partners and the election calculation between Biden and Netanyahu

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