Israeli Press: Will opposition to the deal with Hamas continue? These are projections that could harm Israel

By Danny Strinovich

The discussion about reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, to which the international community is making great efforts in recent weeks, focuses mainly on the future of the Gaza Strip and the future of Hamas, in addition to understandings regarding the price that Israel will pay in exchange for the release of the kidnapped persons. However, the discussion about Gaza ignores the dramatic implications of the possibility of a deal or not on the future of the confrontation, not only between Hamas and Israel, but also between Israel and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, under Iranian guidance, joined the battle of the “Iron Swords” with the motive of exhausting Israeli military efforts and making it more difficult to achieve its declared goals - dismantling Hamas militarily and authoritatively. Therefore, the party began a limited military battle along the border in order to keep the largest possible number of Israeli military forces on Israel's northern border.

Senior Hezbollah officials stress, in their public statements, that Hezbollah will stop the battle against Israel only if the battle in the Gaza Strip stops. Despite all efforts being made to tempt Hezbollah to stop the fighting within the framework of understandings on the northern border, the party stresses that all dialogues will take place only after the Israeli aggression in Gaza stops.

This fact makes the issue of a ceasefire in Gaza at a crossroads regarding the future of relations between Hezbollah and Israel. A ceasefire in the Gaza Strip will necessarily lead to a ceasefire by Hezbollah (and also the rest of the Iranian arms, which have announced this many times), and will allow the start of dialogues with the Lebanese government regarding arrangements on the northern border (including removing Hezbollah from the border). It will also lead to Mainly for the population in the north to return to their homes.

At the same time, if the battle continues in the south, and also on the Lebanese border, the potential for a regional war to break out will be high, because the ability to maintain the current level of confrontation without the population returning to their homes is very weak. In addition, in recent weeks, in order to maintain the battle of “army against army,” both sides are trying to raise the ceiling of their operations against the other side (in terms of pace, distance, and also type of weapon), and it seems that the ability to control the volume of fire is eroding.

If a ceasefire does not occur in the Gaza Strip, both parties will understand that there is actually no way to cease fire at the present time, and it is expected that there will be an increase in military operations so that each party will try to force the other party to cease fire. This fact, in addition to the increase in tension in Iraq and Yemen due to the increase in American intervention against the Houthis and Shiite militias, increases the risk of being drawn into a wide battle, in which it will be difficult for Iran to stand aside, especially if Israel and Hezbollah are drawn into a wide battle.

In conclusion, the ceasefire will not only determine the fate of the battle in the Gaza Strip, but it is also directly related to the possibility of it deteriorating into a broad regional battle.