New York Times: How are leaders and diplomats trying to end the Gaza war?

The American New York Times newspaper reported today, Saturday, that senior American, Israeli, and Arab officials are seeking to formulate three parallel but interconnected paths that would end the war in Gaza, put the final touches on its status in the post-war phase, and, most ambitiously, determine Commitments to establish a Palestinian state.

The newspaper said, senior officials from at least 10 different administrations are trying to formulate a set of interesting deals to end the Gaza war and answer the contentious question of how the region will be governed after the fighting stops.

It added: “The narrowest scope of the main discussions focuses on reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. This will include the exchange of more than 100 Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a ceasefire and thousands of Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons.”

The second track focuses on restructuring the Palestinian Authority, the semi-independent body that administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. American and Arab officials are discussing reforming the PA leadership and assuming control of Gaza after the end of the war and handing over power from Israel and Hamas.

In the third track, American and Saudi officials are pressuring Israel to agree to the conditions for establishing a Palestinian state in exchange for Saudi Arabia establishing official relations with Israel for the first time ever.

It noted that the demands and outcomes discussed in all three processes are linked to each other, and the talks are often viewed as long-term snapshots. Israeli officials said the war began with a Hamas attack on October 7 that killed about 1,200 people. The Israeli counterattack led to the deaths of more than 26,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to officials in the Ministry of Health there. President Biden has given Israel full support for the war.

It continued: “Significant obstacles must be overcome in each set of negotiations. Most important, the Israeli government says it will not allow full Palestinian sovereignty, which raises doubts about whether progress can be made on key fronts.”

The Israeli military campaign has not succeeded in destroying Hamas, so it is unclear how Hamas can be persuaded to step down while it still controls part of Gaza.

And the United States is the power that is trying to tie it all together. A senior State Department official said Brett McGurk, the White House's top official for the Middle East, was in the region last week, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with him several times by phone during a trip in Africa. The Biden administration wants to ensure that a senior US official speaks face-to-face at all times with Israeli and Arab leaders.

Officials are discussing many ideas, most of which are temporary, long-term, or strongly opposed by some parties. Several controversial proposals are:

1. Transferring power within the Palestinian Authority from the current president, Mahmoud Abbas, to a new prime minister, while allowing Mr. Abbas to retain a ceremonial role.

2. Sending an Arab peacekeeping force to Gaza to support the new Palestinian administration there.

3. Pass a resolution in the United Nations Security Council, with the support of the United States, that would recognize the Palestinians’ right to establish their own state.

Below is a roadmap for the three tracks, based on interviews with more than a dozen diplomats and other officials involved in the talks, all of whom spoke anonymously in order to discuss them more freely.

1. Hostages and ceasefire

The Americans believe that ending the war is the first thing the parties must achieve. These talks coincide with negotiations for the release of more than 100 hostages who were taken during the attack that occurred on October 7 and held by Hamas and its allies. Hamas has said it will not release the hostages until Israel agrees to a permanent ceasefire, a position that conflicts with Israel's stated goal of fighting until Hamas is pushed out of Gaza.

Officials from the United States, Israel, Egypt and Qatar are discussing an agreement that would halt the fighting for up to two months. In November, the parties agreed to a short truce that led to Hamas releasing more than 100 hostages.

In one proposal, the hostages would be released in stages over a pause of up to 60 days in exchange for the release of Palestinians detained by Israel. Some officials suggested releasing Israeli civilians first, in exchange for the release of Palestinian women and minors held by Israel. The captured Israeli soldiers will then be exchanged for Palestinian activist leaders serving long-term sentences.

Diplomats from various parties say they hope that more detailed discussions can be held during the truce period about a permanent truce that could include the withdrawal of most or all Israeli forces, the departure of Hamas leaders from the Strip and the transfer of power to the Palestinian Authority. . Currently, both Israel and Hamas have rejected some of these conditions.

To try to move these negotiations forward, William Burns, Director of the CIA, intends to meet in Europe in the coming days with his Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari counterparts.

Some observers hope that the international court's call on Friday for Israel to comply with the Genocide Convention will give momentum and political cover to Israeli officials pushing internally to end the war.

2. Reform of the Palestinian Authority

The Palestinian Authority briefly took control of Gaza after Israeli forces left in 2005, but Hamas forced it from power two years later. Now, some want power to return to Gaza and play a role in post-war governance. To make this idea more attractive to Israel, which opposes it, there is a push by the United States, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to reform the authority and change its leadership.

Under its current president, Mahmoud Abbas (88 years old), the authority is widely viewed as corrupt and authoritarian. The mediators are encouraging him to take a more ceremonial role and cede executive power to a new prime minister who can oversee the reconstruction of Gaza and reduce corruption. American officials say the goal is to make the administrative authority more acceptable to a future Palestinian state. Israeli officials also stress that the authority needs to change its education system, which they say does not promote peace, and end welfare payments to those convicted of violence against Israelis.

Some of Abbas's critics want him to be replaced by Salam Fayyad, the Princeton University professor who is credited with modernizing the authority during his prime ministership a decade ago, or Nasser al-Qidwa, the former Palestinian envoy to the United Nations who broke with Abbas three years ago. But diplomats say Abbas is pushing for a candidate with greater influence over him, such as Mohamed Mustafa, his longtime economic adviser.

Some officials have suggested forming an Arab peacekeeping force to help the new Palestinian leader maintain order in Gaza after the war. Israeli officials reject this idea, but they have proposed the idea of establishing a multinational force under Israel's supervision in the Strip. American diplomats told the Israelis this month that Arab leaders opposed their idea.

3. Saudi normalization with Israel

In the most ambitious set of talks, the Biden administration has revived discussions with Saudi Arabia to get the Saudis to agree to establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel.

The tripartite agreement was under discussion before the October 7 attacks, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appeared ready for it because the Biden administration was offering a US-Saudi defense treaty, cooperation on a civilian nuclear program and more arms sales. US officials say that under this arrangement, the Saudis would have accepted relatively minor Israeli concessions on the Palestinian issue in exchange for Saudi recognition.

This recognition will be an important political victory for American and Israeli leaders because of Saudi Arabia’s status as a leading Arab and Islamic country.

But since the war began, Saudi Arabia and the United States have raised the price for Israel, and are now insisting that Israel commit to a process that leads to the establishment of a Palestinian state and includes Palestinian rule in Gaza. US officials also told the Israelis that Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries would not agree to provide money for Gaza's reconstruction unless Israeli leaders committed to a path leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

These new terms were expressed publicly for the first time by Mr. Blinken after he met with Prince Mohammed at a desert camp in Saudi Arabia this month. He handed it over to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after he traveled from there to Tel Aviv. He repeated it again in a public talk in Davos, Switzerland, as did Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser.

Mr. Netanyahu has publicly rejected this proposal, and recently pledged to maintain Israeli military control over the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip. Many Israelis support this, although some American officials question whether this is an opening negotiating position on Mr. Netanyahu's part.

In order to reassure the Saudis and Palestinians, some officials proposed a United Nations Security Council resolution, with the support of the United States, that would enshrine the Palestinians’ right to sovereignty. But the idea has not yet gained momentum.

There is also the question of whether the Biden administration is able to deliver the Senate-approved mutual defense treaty to Prince Mohammed. Some Democratic senators have already raised concerns about this. It is expected that the chances of Republican senators opposing this decision will increase as the US presidential elections approach in November.