Saudi-Israeli negotiation

Peace projects with Israel are divided into collective and bilateral. Collectivism failed, the Madrid Conference, the Fez Summit initiative presented by King Fahd and then withdrawn after its rejection, the Beirut Summit initiative from King Abdullah, which was rejected by Israel, and the economic peace project, called the “Deal of the Century” and its godfather was Jared Kushner, and it was not achieved.

As for the bilateral agreements, almost all of them succeeded in their declared goals, and the signatories maintained their commitments, and they continue to this day. They began four decades ago when the Camp David Accords ended the state of war and returned the Sinai and the Suez Canal to Egypt, and provided a billion and a half billion dollars in annual American support.

Jordan obtained its demands in the 1994 peace agreement, which included restoring lands equivalent to the size of Gaza, increasing the share of water, and debt exemptions.

Morocco recognized Israel in exchange for its recognition of the Sahara as Moroccan territory. Sudan established a relationship with Israel that included benefits and security and military cooperation.

Lebanon signed an agreement demarcating its water borders with Israel in exchange for recognition of its petroleum rights. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in the Abrahamic Agreement, which included multiple economic projects and understandings. In addition to agreements at lower levels with Israel, which included Qatar, the Sultanate of Oman, and Tunisia.

The 1993 Oslo Accord is an exception in both its success and its failure. Accordingly, a Palestinian authority was born with international legitimacy, and a civil government for the West Bank and Gaza, and it moved from Tunisia, along with about 120,000 exiled Palestinians, members of the Fatah movement and their families, to Palestine. It obtained a commitment to annual European and American support, which was halted during Trump’s presidency, then resumed with Biden. But this agreement failed to fulfill the rest of its promises.

What are the goals of the Saudi-Israeli negotiation, if it actually goes ahead?

All Arab-Israeli agreements were based on a bilateral exchange of interests, from Camp David to the last with Bahrain. It is likely that Saudi efforts will follow the same approach. This time, the American proposal was met with multiple Saudi demands that serve its interests. Defense cooperation, which is important for Saudi security, armaments, the nuclear project, and more, while reviving negotiations on a two-state solution. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to the American media about his desire to enable the Palestinian side to negotiate within Saudi efforts. The bilateral negotiations, Saudi-Israeli, will be decided by the two countries. As for the peace negotiations, based on the formula of a Palestinian state and resolving the outstanding issues, the refugees, settlements, the capital, and others, their decisions will be in the hands of the Palestinians alone in their separate course of negotiations. Rapid Palestinian diplomatic action was noted this time, which suggests a desire to benefit from the new movement. The Palestinian Authority was supposed to benefit from other previous Arab bilateral negotiations with Israel, to support its positions, but it did not do so in the negotiations with Lebanon, the UAE, Morocco, and others. Perhaps these paths will empower the Palestinians economically, enhance their entry into Arab markets, work to save the deteriorating living situation and push towards a two-state solution.

The Saudi path may not achieve a Palestinian state, but it will create the political climate supportive of that. Over the decades since the first negotiations, the Arab world and the region in general have changed, which requires understanding these variables, both negatively and positively. This is not the time to blame the Palestinian Authority for missed opportunities, nor to rebuke the Arabs for their failure to support the Palestinian people, but rather to look for opportunities to fix the deteriorating conditions, restore the political situation, and stop Palestinian divisions.