Between the American Umbrella and Iranian Threats: Is Gulf Security at Risk?

Recently, fundamental questions have been escalating regarding the seriousness of the United States in providing security protection to its allies in the Gulf region, especially in light of rapid field changes. Observers believe that recent military tests have shown a clear American focus on protecting Israeli interests, raising doubts about the priority of the region's security in Washington's defense strategy.

In contrast, Tehran adopts a discourse that holds American military bases responsible for the existing tension, considering their presence a source of discord and instability. Iranian sources claim that they do not seek to antagonize their neighbors, yet field realities indicate the continuation of military pressures targeting the territories of Gulf states despite the latter's attempts to adhere to diplomatic paths.

For his part, political researcher Hussein Jamal described Iranian proposals as part of a 'mobilization discourse' aimed at exerting political and field pressures. Jamal explained that the Gulf states, foremost among them Kuwait, have made strenuous efforts to prevent the expansion of the conflict, emphasizing the necessity of peaceful solutions as the only roadmap to overcome the current crises in the region.

Political sources stressed that Gulf states have taken firm stances by preventing the use of their territories or airspace to carry out any military operations against Iran. Despite these neutral and de-escalatory positions, the region has witnessed repeated attacks, which reinforces the hypothesis that Tehran uses these arenas as pressure messages directed directly at the American administration.

Analysts draw attention to the contradiction in Iranian behavior towards its neighbors, as reports indicate the presence of Israeli intelligence activity in Azerbaijan targeting Iranian national security. Nevertheless, it is noted that Tehran has not taken direct military action against Baku, while choosing to escalate its rhetoric and operations towards the Gulf states, which it describes as the 'soft underbelly'.

Regarding the Kuwaiti position, Jamal affirmed that the country's official policy is firm in refusing to engage in any offensive military action launched from its territory. Kuwait adheres to its vision that dialogue and diplomacy are the only way to achieve stability, away from the language of threat that some parties are trying to impose as a fait accompli in the region.

The analysis concluded that the current Iranian escalation aims primarily to raise the ceiling of demands in any future negotiations with international powers. By targeting interests linked to the American presence, Tehran seeks to turn neighboring countries into political bargaining chips to extract concessions related to its outstanding issues with the international community.

Through its actions, Iran seeks to send messages to the United States, considering some Gulf states the soft underbelly of the region.