The War of Attrition and Metal Balances: How Did the Confrontation with Iran Reshape the American Armament Equation?

Washington – Said Arikat – 11/4/2026

News Analysis

The American-Israeli war on Iran has brought renewed attention to strategic shifts that extend beyond the direct battlefield, revealing increasing fragility in the structure underpinning American military power, particularly concerning supply chains and reliance on critical metals. Within a limited number of weeks of confrontation, the extent of attrition suffered by American missile defense systems in the region became apparent, amidst concentrated Iranian attacks targeting radar and communication infrastructures, which weakened early detection and interception capabilities.

According to estimates reported by Politico magazine, rebuilding these systems does not only depend on domestic industrial capabilities but is closely linked to global supply chains dominated by China, especially regarding critical metals such as gallium. This metal is used in manufacturing essential components for interceptor missiles, as well as its applications in semiconductors and advanced technologies, making it a pivotal element in the rearmament equation.

During forty days of war, Iran targeted a number of advanced American radar units deployed across the region. These systems, which form the backbone of air defense systems, suffered severe damage, if not complete destruction of some, according to expert estimates. This directly impacted operational performance, as American forces and their allies were forced to launch a larger number of interceptor missiles to deal with threats, in some cases up to ten or eleven missiles to intercept a single target, leading to an unprecedented acceleration in the depletion of stockpiles.

This rapid attrition highlights a deeper dilemma concerning the United States' ability to replenish these stockpiles amidst production and structural constraints. American defense industries, despite their technological superiority, rely on complex supply networks that span several continents and are subject to intricate geopolitical and economic factors. In this context, China emerges as a central player, given its dominance over more than 90% of heavy rare earth metal processing operations, including essential elements for targeting systems such as terbium and dysprosium.

This dominance has been reflected in market movements, with gallium prices rising by 32% within one month, after a period of decline following previous trade understandings between Washington and Beijing. This increase reflects the market's sensitivity to any change in demand or supply and confirms that any increase in American demand to rebuild stockpiles will strengthen China's negotiating position, especially in light of preparations for an upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

In this context, statements by officials and experts indicate a growing awareness within Washington of the magnitude of the challenge. Former trade negotiator Wendy Cutler warns that appearing as the needy party gives the other party additional leverage, while analysts believe that any disruption in supply chains will create new bottlenecks in industries already struggling to meet demand. This concern grows with the realization that rebuilding stockpiles will not be a short-term matter, but a process that could extend for years.

Conversely, the United States is trying to use the temporary ceasefire with Iran to reassess the damage to its military arsenal and prioritize reconstruction. However, the challenge is not limited to replacing consumed quantities but extends to rethinking the structure of supply chains themselves and reducing reliance on external sources that could turn into political pressure tools.

Despite American efforts to develop alternatives, including mineral exploration projects in allied countries such as Australia, these initiatives are still in their early stages and will not be able to bridge the gap in the short or medium term. Building new supply chains also requires massive investments and a long time, at a time when the pace of military consumption is accelerating due to multiple conflicts.

In contrast, China appears keen to manage this card cautiously. Despite its ability to influence supply chains, it realizes that excessive escalation could lead to adverse reactions, including accelerating Western efforts to decouple economically. Therefore, Beijing may prefer to use its influence gradually and thoughtfully, achieving negotiating gains without harming the stability of economic relations with the United States.

Nevertheless, the scene remains open to multiple possibilities, especially in light of escalating tensions in the Middle East and the increasing intertwining of national security and the global economy. The war on Iran was not merely a military confrontation but revealed a complex network of interdependence, where natural resources become tools of influence, and supply chains become an integral part of the deterrence equation.

The war reveals a structural dilemma in the American ability to replenish advanced weapon stockpiles, as it is not just about increasing production, but about restarting complex manufacturing chains that rely on precise components and rare materials. Interceptor missiles, for example, require long production cycles and extensive testing to ensure their effectiveness. With the sudden surge in demand, this process faces constraints in production capacity, a shortage of specialized labor, and supply bottlenecks, making the process of refilling stockpiles extend for years, not months.

The challenge of maintaining military systems is no less complex than replacing them, as fighter jets and missile launch platforms require costly periodic maintenance cycles, which in turn depend on the availability of advanced spare parts and stable supply chains. With the increasing pace of operations, consumption and wear rates rise, putting pressure on combat readiness. In a geographically extended operational environment, as in the Middle East, these challenges are compounded by the need to transport and maintain equipment in distant bases, which exacerbates costs and increases the likelihood of malfunctions.

The war also demonstrates the fragility of the logistical structure supporting American military bases abroad, as these bases rely on a continuous flow of fuel, spare parts, and sensitive technical systems. With some of these bases being subjected to direct or indirect attacks, maintenance and supply operations become more complicated, especially in light of continuous threats to infrastructure. Any delay in supplies can also lead to a decline in operational efficiency, forcing military leadership to reassess its deployment and its ability to sustain itself in high-intensity conflict environments.