Lowest population growth rate since the establishment of the occupation state

Recent demographic data has recorded the lowest population growth rate since the establishment of the occupation state, with the natural increase in population declining to unprecedented levels, coinciding with negative migration rates and a clear decline in fertility, alongside expectations of rising death rates in the coming decades, in a development described as alarming for the demographic trajectory by the end of 2025.

An analysis issued by the Taub Center for Social Policy Research revealed that Israel has recorded the lowest population growth rate since the founding of the state, and the data confirmed a decline in the population growth rate to about 0.9 percent only this year, compared to an annual rate that did not fall below 1.5 percent in most periods since 1950, noting that this decline is a historical precedent in Israel's demographic path.

The report indicated that it observed negative migration rates, alongside a continuous decline in fertility rates, in addition to expectations of rising death rates in the coming decades, which directly reflects on the pace of natural increase in population numbers.

The Taub Center attributed this decline to a mix of factors, most notably the increase in deaths due to the aging of the population, the continued decline in fertility rates among most population groups, in addition to the rise in the number of Israelis leaving compared to those arriving in the country.

The average life expectancy within the Israeli occupation reached about 83.7 years in 2023, which is among the highest in the countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and was only surpassed by Switzerland, Japan, and Spain, and it exceeds the average in the United States by about 5.3 years, and in Britain by about 2.7 years.

It explained that despite the continued rise in average life expectancy, the absolute number of deaths is witnessing a clear increase, rising from about 46 thousand deaths in 2018 to nearly 51 thousand in 2024, with expectations of an increase in annual deaths by 77 percent by 2040, including an increase of 71 percent among Jews and 111 percent among Arabs.

Regarding fertility, the annual number of births has remained relatively stable over the past decade, despite the decline in fertility rates among most population groups. It indicated that Jewish women have maintained a higher fertility level compared to other groups, despite a noticeable decline since 2018.

It added that the decline in fertility rates will lead to a decline in natural increase, especially among Arab populations, with expectations of a slowdown in the growth of the number of Arab women of childbearing age in the coming decade, which may reflect on the total number of births.

It confirmed that the report described the current phase as the end of the era of high natural reproduction, noting a decline in the annual natural increase rate from 1.6 percent in 2016 to 1.3 percent in 2025, with a sharper decline among Arab populations.

It quoted the director of research and head of the demography department at the Taub Center, Professor Alex Weinreb, as saying that Israel stands on the threshold of a new demographic era, characterized by a decline in natural increase and instability in the migration balance, representing a clear break with previous patterns.

The report also emphasized the growing importance of migration policies in supporting future population growth, with the necessity of understanding the characteristics of departing and arriving migrants before making policy decisions in this field.

It quoted Professor Avi Weiss, president of the Taub Center and editor of the report, as saying that the "State of the Nation" report provides a comprehensive picture of the social and economic challenges facing Israel by the end of 2025, confirming that these challenges, two years after the war, require immediate responses from decision-makers.