Political Thinker: The False Promise of a Ceasefire in Gaza

The writer and political thinker Mohammed Ayoub stated that the agreement in Gaza faces the imminent risk of collapse less than a month after the announcement of a ceasefire, accusing Israeli extremism and the declining American commitment to supporting a permanent solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Ayoub began his article by emphasizing that American efforts led by Vice President J.D. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner failed to rein in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who launched two new attacks on the Gaza Strip within a few weeks.

The writer believes that the second phase of the agreement—which involves disarming the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and establishing an alternative authority in Gaza—seems almost impossible, as no one can convince the movement to give up its weapons without losing its justification for existence as a national resistance against occupation. Even if it surrendered, other organizations would emerge to fill the void.

Israel's recent excessive military responses show that the Israeli government is eager to resume its military campaign in Gaza, especially since it only accepted the ceasefire under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, and many ministers in Netanyahu's government oppose the agreement and demand the continuation of the war until the "complete elimination of Palestinian resistance."

The Israeli government will continue to seek a pretext to resume the attack to achieve its maximum goals declared by Netanyahu since the beginning of the war, and this option seems more appealing now after Hamas released all living Israeli detainees.

However, the Israeli right's desire to turn Gaza into the "Riviera of the Middle East" reveals an implicit intention to uproot the population and seize the land, reinforcing Palestinians' conviction that the real goal is their permanent displacement from the Strip.

Despite Israel's military superiority, Ayoub questions the sustainability of its dominance in the region, as the demographic balance will make it almost a bi-national state, placing it before two bitter choices.

The article notes that the war on Gaza has weakened Arab confidence in Israel, especially among Gulf states, distancing the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia.

As for within the United States, Ayoub asserts that American public opinion is undergoing a radical shift against Israel, with a majority of Americans believing that Israel has committed war crimes.

Mohammed Ayoub concluded that the "current ceasefire" in Gaza is not the beginning of a solution, but rather a fragile station dependent on the continuation of Israeli dominance and unconditional American support.