Trump-Netanyahu meeting, prospects for a Gaza ceasefire, and the "grand bargain"

On the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the White House to meet with US President Donald Trump for the third time since he took office on January 20, Trump hopes the visit will represent a "remarkable victory" for the US president's unique diplomacy, according to observers.

Both Trump and Netanyahu will capitalize on their appearances side by side at the White House, showcasing the ceasefire agreements with Iran and Gaza as evidence of their unique partnership and leadership skills.

However, the risks remain extremely high for both. For Netanyahu, his political future hinges largely on developments in the Gaza war in the coming days, both in terms of his dealings with Trump and his domestic Israeli audience. On Friday evening, Hamas announced that it had provided the mediators with a positive response to the ceasefire proposal.

Trump is actively trying to define his foreign policy legacy in real time (as events unfold) regarding the Middle East. After bombing Iranian nuclear sites two weeks ago, politicizing the intelligence surrounding their destruction, insisting that the US bombing completely destroyed them, and immediately brokering a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, a ceasefire in Gaza would represent another diplomatic achievement for Trump, according to experts.

Not only would this give him another victory to boast about over his Democratic rivals, but it would also pave the way for historic diplomatic achievements, such as a security agreement between Israel and Syria, new members joining the normalization agreements with Israel (the Abraham Accords), and reviving normalization talks with Saudi Arabia.

By all estimates, all these efforts will remain stalled until Israel's brutal war on the besieged Gaza Strip ends.

It's worth noting that by announcing via a post on the Truth Social website on Wednesday (July 2, 2025) that Israel had agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, Trump explicitly pressured Hamas by portraying Israel as willing to do what he wanted. The US president later told reporters that he would be "very firm" with Netanyahu during his upcoming visit to Washington.

Trump has followed in the footsteps of successive US presidents in granting Netanyahu and Israel carte blanche to deal with the Palestinians, with war, siege, and relentless collective punishment. Like former (Democratic) President Joe Biden, he has allowed Israel to continue its war on Gaza, providing it with an uninterrupted supply of weapons and unconditional support at the United Nations, despite the steadily worsening humanitarian crisis.

It is worth noting here that while Biden urged Israel to work with the United Nations and humanitarian relief agencies operating in Gaza, Trump explicitly supported Israel's starvation policy and the establishment of the "Gaza Humanitarian Foundation" (GHF) as a tool for killing and starvation. More than 600 Palestinians have been killed near distribution sites since aid distribution began in late May.

Insiders insist that Trump's pledge to pressure Netanyahu is not just empty rhetoric, and that his speech last week clearly shows that he is publicly pressuring Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire. While Trump has previously responded to calls to end the war by supporting Israel "to do what is necessary and appropriate to achieve its goals," he is explicitly calling for an end to the war unconditionally.

According to experts, a fundamental tension remains: While Trump seeks a quick end to the war, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu remains focused on "winning the war," even though Israel, with full American support, has used all its might over the past 21 months without achieving this goal according to its stated criteria. Netanyahu (and the United States) are focused on the condition that Hamas remain in power in Gaza, something Hamas has repeatedly declared its readiness to do, and on the movement's surrender and disarmament, a condition Hamas is unlikely to accept.

While Trump may be "more enthusiastic about a ceasefire," Netanyahu's calculations, experts say, may have changed. The recent war with Iran confirmed Israel's complete dependence on American support, altered Netanyahu's political and security calculations, and granted him more flexibility in dealing with extremists within his government.

Orion says a ceasefire could be an opportunity for practical planning for the “day after”: establishing alternative governance, disarmament, humanitarian relief, and reconstruction.

This pragmatic approach seeks to build stability in Gaza through concrete steps rather than loose peace agreements, which are often elusive.

Trump wants a "grand bargain that ends the conflict" between the Palestinians and Israel, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said in response to a question from a Jerusalem correspondent last Wednesday. A central component of the "grand bargain" being circulated in the media is the highly sensitive issue of sovereignty in the occupied West Bank. Trump's "deal of the century" plan, put forward during his first term, explicitly stipulated US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over parts of the West Bank, alongside a non-contiguous Palestinian state in other parts.

This could pose a major challenge for President Trump, as expanding the Abraham Accords normalization agreements could contradict his goal of annexing the occupied West Bank. This is especially true given that the biggest prize in the normalization process, Saudi Arabia, has insisted—until now—on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank, with Jerusalem as its capital, as a prerequisite for normalization.