Reading to investigate the possibilities of the critical area reached by the war

It is not easy to comprehend what is currently happening, especially in light of the ambiguity surrounding military operations, and in light of the strong and intensive intelligence dimension they entail. It may be naive to rush to form an assessment of the situation if we are satisfied with field data and what is published through the media. However, it is possible to create a probability tree similar to a decision tree that deals with several scenarios, and based on it, the analysis takes the form of branching tree branches. If such and such is the case, then such and such might happen, but if such and such is another, then such and such might result.

I have tried as much as possible to avoid the decision tree approach. This is possible if many scenarios are excluded from the analysis. This is, of course, not without risk. Refining the inputs and the number of data and information, and shortening them to a certain extent, could be the very mistake that the individual or researcher commits, unless this process is carried out with extreme caution and in a scientific manner.

I may be wrong in this approach, but I decided to start my research with a question I didn't know the answer to due to my lack of knowledge of nuclear physics. So, I decided to direct the following question to ChatGPT using artificial intelligence. The question was as follows:

"Can the Iranian nuclear program be destroyed in light of the known facts about it, the level of enrichment it has reached, what the International Atomic Energy Agency knows about it, and of course what America and Israel know?"

I thought this question was the most important to know first the real reasons for the war and second how I could predict its outcomes. This will become clear later anyway.

The AI program didn't provide a conclusive answer, but among the sources it provided was an interview with a person named Yusri Abu Shadi, the chief inspector at the International Atomic Energy Agency, and I actually listened to it with great interest. He was amazing in his definitiveness and confidence that the Iranian nuclear program cannot be destroyed even if it is bombed with all kinds of bombs, that there is a parallel nuclear project that countries embarking on building a nuclear project resort to, and that Iran possesses the know-how to proceed with its project if it considers weaponizing the program (it has turned it into a military project). Most importantly, he said that what Iran currently possesses is approximately 75 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which is enough to make two nuclear bombs!!! And that no one can know where this stockpile is stored!

This is an amazing revelation, and provides one with a solid basis for further analysis.

So, the United States and Israel know that striking reactors and enrichment plants won't stop the project, and might at most hinder it. But what about the sufficiency of the available stockpile to manufacture two nuclear bombs? Israel knows this, and with this realization, it becomes logical to conclude that the only guarantee to end the Iranian nuclear project is to overthrow the Iranian state and its political system and replace it either with a failed state like Iraq's or with a regime that guarantees the elimination of all components of the nuclear project: scientists, technicians, physicists, engineers, and tangible scientific assets such as enrichment plants, centrifuge manufacturing, and research and development centers. Not to mention the stockpile of enriched uranium and plutonium that has been accumulated to date, as well as intangible assets such as knowledge, relationships, information, and more.

As long as this is the case, this indicates the primary and central objective of the war, which is to overthrow the state and the political system. The nuclear issue is merely a cover for this plan. This explains the massive investment in intelligence and the advance work related to preparing cells within the Iranian state to attack it as soon as the hard core of the Revolutionary Leader, Imam Khamenei, the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards, and senior officers and commanders of the army, general staff, and intelligence are killed. This also explains the disabling of radar and air defense systems, making the state appear paralyzed and unable to mount any response for an extended period. This period is then exploited by attacks by Mossad and CIA cells, supporters of the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), supporters of the return of the monarchy, and anyone else Western intelligence agencies and neighboring Arab agencies have managed to attract to the opposition to the revolution. This is achieved through an internal attack to suggest that the regime and its institutions are on the verge of collapse. This is achieved using all modern technological means, from disrupting the communications equipment of the army and the Revolutionary Guards, dismantling their assets, and penetrating these devices by issuing orders to individuals and field commanders to withdraw and flee, as happened in Syria. If the first strike succeeds, the situation will be favorable for the United States to enter the arena, perhaps through massive destructive operations against power, energy and communications stations, and to disrupt the country’s lifeline, thus preparing the ground for deliberate ground landings to complete the plot (and here it is not unlikely that the armies of “Saudi Arabia” and the Emirates will enter the war after it becomes clear to them that the Iranian revolutionary state is no longer in a position to retaliate, which these countries fear).

The US provided the entity with everything it needed for a first strike, including strategic deception. Trump claimed to be optimistic about reaching an agreement with Iran and to have asked Netanyahu not to take any action that would disrupt the Oman-sponsored negotiations, while secretly agreeing with Netanyahu on the timing and nature of the surprise attack. Thus, Trump tasked the entity with whatever assassinations, disruptions, and disruptions the US could undertake in a first strike, while awaiting the results without being deemed to have waged war. Some may ask, why would Trump be so interested in such a scenario and wait for the US to pounce on the remaining elements and eliminate the revolutionary regime? The answer is simple: if the first strike fails, the entire operation will fail, and America will be a party to the war and will have to pay the price for that. Of course, it goes without saying that the price will be costly for the United States in the event of the Strait of Hormuz being closed and mined, and costly in terms of American interests and bases in the region. This is all understandable, but the biggest price, in my opinion, is that Iran will become a nuclear state and will find its golden opportunity to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. We return to what Yusri Abu Shadi, the chief inspector of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said: A few weeks are enough to convert uranium enriched at 60% to 93% only by switching from parallel enrichment to sequential enrichment, which is similar to a water tap. All you have to do is double its power, especially in light of Iran’s possession of IR-8 centrifuges and perhaps more. This means the ability to accelerate and double enrichment ten times that of regular centrifuges such as the IR-1. Of course, according to Yusri Abu Shadi, Iran, even at the available level of enrichment, can manufacture two bombs. When the enrichment level is 60%, it is necessary to have 35 kilograms of this uranium is enough to produce one bomb, while if it is enriched to the highest level, 15 kilograms will be enough to produce one bomb.

Returning to the US entry into the war, it would be foolish to do so before the results are guaranteed. The other side of this conclusion is the question: What does America's failure to enter the war directly indicate? Logic dictates that it cannot guarantee results as long as Iran has not collapsed after the first strike, despite the fact that all intelligence agencies on earth have deployed all their energy in preparation for this strike and despite the use of the latest weapons technology, jamming, cyber warfare, espionage, and deception. Indeed, the signals emerging from Iran hours after this strike indicate the failure of all expectations. Most of what was jammed and bombed was quickly replaced, and radars and air defense systems mobilized to bring down the most important warplane known to humanity, the F-35. All ballistic and hypersonic missile systems also operated with high efficiency, although this was less than what was possible, but certainly much greater than what the Americans and the leaders of the entity had anticipated and worked for. Another very important indication is that the target bank for the first strike was more than Israel was able to access, whether at the level of leaders or experts. It would be foolish to assume that Khamenei himself was not at the top of the list of those wanted for elimination (if they had been able to reach him, they would not have missed it). It is even more foolish to believe that Trump and Netanyahu know where he lives and may reach him when they decide to. This is nothing more than a description of failure and an implication that the initiative is still in their hands and that the man only lives by their decision. There are two other indications issued from Iran that are contrary to what was expected: The unity of the Iranian people and their support for their leadership, and the ability of Iranian intelligence agencies to take the initiative and track down and uncover Mossad cells and those the entity relied on to carry out internal sabotage operations. It is true that the number of those discovered is large and shocking, but from another perspective, this reflects a great awareness of this danger at the level of Iranian security agencies. This was followed by major successes in uncovering the hideouts of these cells and the drone factories they operated, and in uncovering and pursuing their members, who appear to operate according to a system of cells linked together in a cluster manner, enabling them to coordinate their actions among themselves and in a threaded manner that links them to their command centers. This makes it easier for the security agencies to uncover their members, methods, and plans as soon as one of the cells is uncovered.

What is the position now in light of the above?

If the above is true, then America will only enter the war if the results are guaranteed. Netanyahu is telling Trump that things are ready, so come and reap the results and strike your decisive blow, as I have prepared everything for you. Meanwhile, Trump is recalculating time and again whether Netanyahu's description is correct or not. Of course, he will base this on an assessment of the American intelligence situation. However, the most important result that he does not want to reach is for Iran to be in a position to announce its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which means, in the language of the field, that Iran has moved towards producing the bomb. With this, everything he planned will have failed. Instead of preventing Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon, the outcome of the war will be that American involvement is what enabled Iran to transform its peaceful nuclear project into a military one. This is the situation now, and this is what worries Trump, while Netanyahu is embellishing the situation in front of him to hasten America's involvement, betting that America's mere direct involvement will force it to complete the mission to the end.

The question remains: could Trump undo all that he has achieved through the entity? Logically, he could take this path if engaging in a direct war would be more costly. He could also take this path because the lack of direct engagement is what would keep Iran a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and keep its facilities subject to 24-hour inspection and monitoring. Diplomatic signals from mediators could play a role in giving Trump what he could later claim as having reached an agreement preventing the possession of nuclear weapons. This is happening on one track, while on the other track, America is doing everything in its power to bring down the Islamic Revolutionary regime, but without risking losing what the other, diplomatic, track dictates. If it reaches the conviction that it can bring down the regime, it will do so without hesitation and will pay no attention to the other track. This explains all this waiting.