Prisoner exchange negotiations: Netanyahu between US pressure and threats to topple his government

The US administration is pressuring Israel to agree to an agreement proposed by US Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff, which would release half of the remaining Israeli prisoners and establish a temporary ceasefire. This agreement would then lead to a comprehensive agreement that would include the release of the remaining Israeli prisoners and a cessation of hostilities.

Although the Israeli negotiating delegation is still in Doha, the agreement will not be finalized there, but rather through talks between the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government, according to Amos Harel, a military analyst for Haaretz, on Monday.

According to Harel, Netanyahu is now trying to present the Israeli public with a false image of victory, "which will allow him to justify an interim deal and perhaps keep his partners in the Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism parties within the coalition at this stage."

He added, "Witkoff's proposal would enable Netanyahu to safely pass the Knesset's summer session, which ends on July 27. In this case, the government's term would continue until the beginning of the Knesset's winter session, at least at the end of October, and general elections would not be held until the spring of 2026. This is Netanyahu's most important goal at present, and other considerations appear secondary to him."

However, Harel noted that, in the background of all this, "there is the fear expressed by former Israeli security officials that Netanyahu is once again considering launching an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, despite the progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran."

Meanwhile, Religious Zionism Party leader and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced this morning that he would make an "important statement" shortly before noon. Media reports suggested he would address Netanyahu's decision yesterday to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip without a vote in the political-security cabinet.

Smotrich strongly opposes the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip, claiming last month that "not even a grain of wheat will be allowed to enter the Strip in a way that reaches Hamas. This would be the same mistake made in the first part of the war."

Smotrich later said, "If a single drop of humanitarian aid reaches Hamas, I will leave the government and the cabinet. I cannot live with that, just as I cannot live with the evacuation of settlements. That is a red line for me. I told the prime minister that I do not agree, over my dead body. I will not remain in the government another minute."

Otzma Yehudit party leader and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir has also repeatedly expressed his strong opposition to the entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.