OPINIONS

Fri 10 Nov 2023 12:34 pm - Jerusalem Time

Report: No Israeli victory on the horizon and a ceasefire within two weeks

“Biden does not have time. The scenes from devastated Gaza expose him to criticism within his party and portray him as someone who surrendered to the will of an unpopular Israeli government. America’s allies in the region fear for their rule. And the opinion polls are terrible.”


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed, during an interview with the American Fox network last night, that Israel will continue the war on Gaza until “Hamas collapses, and we are obligated to win.” However, Nahum Barnea, a political analyst in the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, pointed out today, Friday, that, “Unfortunately, there is no victory on the horizon. Netanyahu’s statements about a war for a long period are a marketing substitute for a victory that does not exist.”


Barnea added, "The reality that awaits us is different: confrontations with allies, truces, the liberation of prisoners, and blackmail by terrorists." He pointed out, "In light of the increasing strength of the Iranian axis, Israel needs America and its president like it has never needed him before."


The New York Times writer, Thomas Friedman, reported in an article yesterday that US President Joe Biden “will continue to supply the needs of the Israeli army and support military operations in Gaza, only if Israel enters a political process against the Palestinians in the West Bank, with the aim of reaching a political process” to the two-state solution.”


Barnea indicated that Friedman is very close to Biden. But he added, "The current Israeli government does not want and cannot fulfill this condition proposed by the American President. In Israel there is a government that existed before October 7 and it is not qualified for the reality on October 8. The lack of compatibility between the immediate needs and the internal political conditions in Israel creates difficulty. The result is "Increasing American pressure to agree to a ceasefire."


According to Barnea, the Israelis rejected the Americans’ request for a ceasefire and talked about a truce. They said, “The term ‘ceasefire’ gives (Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar) and his soldiers a feeling that salvation is near. The fighting must continue.”


He added, "The hope (in Israel) is that the pressure will be great enough to change Sinwar's positions and allow the release of the kidnapped people in large numbers or the complete exit of Hamas from Gaza."


According to Barnea, “Biden does not have time. The scenes from the devastated Gaza expose him to criticism from the left wing of his party and portray him as someone who surrendered to the will of an unpopular Israeli government. America’s allies in the region fear for the stability of their rule. Opinion polls are terrible, without a relationship with Israel. And there is no "Biden has a reserve of votes."


Barnea added, “Within a week, or two weeks at most, Israel will be forced to agree to a ceasefire. The Israeli army will remain in the northern Gaza Strip, with a limited number of forces in what looks like a security strip. What then? The decision-makers in Israel do not currently have answers.” ".


Barnea pointed to the escalation taking place in the West Bank against the backdrop of settler terrorism in light of the war on Gaza. “The provocations in the West Bank worry the Biden administration no less than the continued shooting in Gaza.”


"Terrible Israeli deficit"


The military analyst in the newspaper "Haaretz", Amos Harel, pointed out that the war on Gaza entered its 35th day this morning, and it is now one day longer than the Second Lebanon War, which ended in describing its results as a "frustrating draw", because Israel was unable to defeat Hezbollah.


He added, "The circumstances this time are much more difficult. Israel began the war with terrible helplessness, following a chilling intelligence failure, on October 7. Everything the Israeli army has done since then, and what it will do as well, is like a desperate attempt to chase an opponent that was far ahead of it."


He continued, "After 2006, and the many battles that followed in Gaza, the security ministers and chiefs of staff of the Israeli army used to talk about the necessity of defeating the enemy quickly. In the air force and the political level, they doubted the capabilities of the ground forces."

Harel pointed out that "the Israeli army suffers losses when Hamas blames the Israeli forces when they stop in place, or when they reach important places for the movement and engage in a stronger defensive effort around them." Officers in the General Staff were quoted as saying, “The area in which the Israeli army operates is the most crowded in which such an operation takes place. In addition to two things that increase the difficulties faced by the Israeli forces, which are the very complex underground tunnels and residential towers, although a large portion of some of them were destroyed by Israeli raids.


He added, "It is worth remembering that victory in the war is achieved when one side stops working, whether through an official declaration or the actual collapse of its systems. Hamas, so far, seems far from that. Its performance in the northern Gaza Strip is being targeted, but not a collapse."

From Arab48

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Report: No Israeli victory on the horizon and a ceasefire within two weeks

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