The repercussions of the Israeli-American-Iranian war: scenarios for escalating geopolitical tension in the region

Christine Hanna Nasr

Following the US attacks on Iran's most important nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan), the question that arises here is: What is the future of the Iranian nuclear program, and specifically its enriched uranium? This legitimate question arises within the framework of conflicting statements issued by the two parties to the conflict. Iran declared, after the US airstrikes on the three sites, that Iran would continue its uranium enrichment activity, and that it had also worked, before the strike, to transfer large quantities of enriched uranium to secret, undisclosed locations. For its part, Israel also stated that the US strikes were successful and resulted in the destruction of large quantities estimated at hundreds of kilograms of enriched uranium in Iran. If the transfer had occurred, as Iran claims, then it would have been limited to small quantities.
Here I want to say that there are several expected scenarios regarding the Iranian response related to the nuclear file and the new-old conflicts and tensions with the United States and Israel, as Iran is considering a response through several options, the most important of which is withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (the NPT was opened for signature in 1968 and entered into force on March 5, 1970, and on May 11, 1995, the treaty was extended indefinitely), which will further complicate this issue, as Iran will be able to get rid of the restrictions of the treaty and will then be able to develop its nuclear program. It is expected that it will then be able to enter the stage of obtaining nuclear weapons and arming itself with nuclear warheads from several countries, as stated by Dmitry Medvedev, who holds the position of Chairman of the Russian Security Council.
Another expected scenario, and perhaps the most damaging and repercussive for the Arab region and the Gulf, is that Iran and its proxies in the Middle East, such as Yemen and Iraq, will strike American bases in the Arabian Gulf region. Yesterday, Iran attacked the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar. There is also the possibility of targeting other American bases in Syria, specifically the eastern Euphrates region, and bases in Jordan, Iraq, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. There is also the possibility of striking American bases in Turkey. Therefore, we will move here to the most complex and dangerous scenario if things escalate and take a turn for the worse, with the possibility of some countries becoming militarily involved in this conflict, which would lead the region and the world to find themselves in a state of regional conflict in the Arabian Gulf region and the Arab Levant as a whole.
Especially since we are actually facing a reality in which Iran may implement its decision, which was ratified by the Iranian Parliament, to close the Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, which connects the waters of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, through which the majority of global oil and gas exports pass to various parts of the world. These geopolitical risks that threaten these strategic waterways, in addition to the possibility of the expansion of confrontations and Iran’s exploitation of its regional allies in the region, such as the Ansar Allah Houthi movement in Yemen, which can close other important strategic seaports, such as the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The world may witness in the future a crisis preventing the movement of some international commercial ships from passing through it, and thus the flames of the raging battles may escalate and move towards other arenas that may affect some oil fields located in the Arabian Gulf and the countries of the Arab Levant as well, which would lead to an increase in the cost of protecting these fields as strategic global energy sources. These developments may potentially hinder the process of oil exports and navigation in the Red Sea, noting that there is another outlet for the Gulf countries that they can use, which is the Sharjah outlet, to avoid the risks threatening the Strait. Hormuz. All these developments and possibilities will increase the cost of maritime transport, as well as the cost of marine insurance, due to the connection to the increase in the proportion of geopolitical risks coinciding with the erupting conflicts, which would affect the sea lanes and ports in the region. This will inevitably affect international investment markets if the confrontations continue and intensify, as it is not unlikely that they will push foreign investors towards making a decision to limit or freeze their investments in the region, especially since the increase and continuation of confrontations and military developments will cast a shadow over all other economic sectors, such as trade. This will be reflected in the rise in commodity prices and a negative impact on the tourism sector, and will be a factor in reducing revenues, thus making the region an unsafe destination for tourism in the Arab East, including the countries of the Arabian Gulf. Another possibility is a decrease in demand for travel via local airlines, and perhaps adjusting the flight path of international airlines towards other, safer airspace, with the aim of avoiding tense and inflamed areas. This will ultimately affect the economic and financial returns of the countries primarily affected in their economic balance from these. Unfortunately, the military crises are raging.
Naturally, this war between Israel and Iran will have a significant impact on energy resources, especially natural gas. If Israel shuts down two of its three gas fields in the Mediterranean, it will reduce natural gas supplies to international markets and may shift toward relying on coal and fuel oil as an emergency alternative to operate its power plants. The Karish field supplies European countries with natural gas instead of Russian gas and energy supplies, which have been halted due to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
It is worth noting that Jordan has been affected by the lack of Israeli gas supplies due to the Israeli war with Iran. It is well known that Jordan imports natural gas from Israel, as a result of the 2016 gas agreement signed between Jordan and Israel through the American company "Noble Energy", which was the main operator of the Israeli "Tamar" and "Leviathan" fields before Chevron managed them. The Jordanian Electricity Company relies on importing approximately 300 million cubic meters of gas daily, and this agreement is valid for fifteen years.
All these geopolitical developments related to the existing conflicts in the region, along with the possibility of their dramatic escalation, especially after the attack on the American base in Qatar yesterday, increase the possibility of Iran’s allies in Iraq and Yemen exploiting this to attack other American bases and interests in the Arabian Gulf and the Arab East, including those in Syria and Jordan. The conflict between America and Israel with Iran will inevitably escalate, negatively impacting the entire Middle East, which has imposed on its countries the option of crisis and war without any other option available to them. This could ultimately lead to a regional war with dire consequences if there is no immediate strategy to control matters and prevent them from spiraling out of control in a more dangerous direction. I do not believe that from now on there is any comprehensive window for negotiations leading to complete peace between Iran and America, especially in the field of the nuclear file. Matters may develop again towards military options, and then there will be no return to negotiations, in a way that could have a direct impact on the fragile internal security situation in Iran, which has been demonstrated primarily by many demonstrations and marches. The opposition that the Iranian regime had previously suppressed, and here the internal opposition may seek to exploit the situation if the crisis worsens and expands to carry out something resembling a revolution or widespread demonstrations. There may also be exploitation of the external Iranian opposition represented by the heir to the Shah's throne abroad (Reza Pahlavi), who a few days ago addressed the Iranian people to overthrow the rule of Supreme Leader Khamenei, as Pahlavi stated to the Iranian people that they must seize the opportunity now and he will support them in that. There is a possibility of a future scenario in which the Iranian opposition succeeds in its quest to overthrow the mullahs' regime in Iran. A few days ago, US President Trump stated that the Iranian regime has not offered peace to the Iranian people and that for 40 years it has been "bullying" the Arab peoples, especially through Qassem Soleimani in Iraq.
There is no doubt that the coming days will be full of many developments, and I hope that matters will be resolved so that the region does not enter into a regional war. I hope that actual control will be achieved over the tense reality and that the military escalation will be stopped, especially what we witnessed yesterday of mutual missile strikes and shelling between Tehran and Israel, as Trump stated that a ceasefire has been agreed upon and will come into effect this morning, Tuesday, hoping for peace between Iran and Israel. Will this agreement be a practical stage for achieving peace? Will the failure of this agreement, which followed the (12) day war, be a gateway to the scenarios I have proposed, especially in the context of Iran’s determination to maintain its nuclear program, which was the cause of the ignition and development of the conflict?? In the end, I hope and look forward to our region in the Gulf and the Arab East as a whole entering a state of peace and prosperity instead of potential war scenarios.